Estimation of supply and demand functions of the major food security crops in the Sudan (1974- 2004)

Mohamed E. A. Auad, Nagat A. M. Elmulathum, Abbas E. M. Elamin

Abstract


This study aimed at estimating the supply and demand functions and measuring the food consumption gaps of the main food crops, namely sorghum, wheat and millet. Descriptive statistics and backward regret-ssion analysis were used as tools of analysis. Results showed that the quantity of food crops produced was far below the real needs for local consumption. Moreover, self-sufficiency ratio has declined from 100 % in 1981/1982 to 72.6% in 2000 /2001, indicating positive trend in the food consumption gap. Regarding sorghum crop, results showed that the most important factor affecting the supply of sorghum was the lagged producer price whereas the most important factors affecting demand for sorghum were consumer price of sorghum and per capita income. Results showed that the most important factors affecting the supply of wheat were the producer price of sorghum and the producer price of cotton whereas the most important factor affecting demand for wheat was the consumer price of sorghum. The millet crop was affected by the lagged producer price and consumer price of millet supply and demand functions, respectively. The results of this study indicated that, in a national sense, Sudan is food insecure during the period 1980/81-2004/2005. The shift in consumption habits towards wheat is highly responsible for the food insecurity.

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