The impact of world prices and domestic policies on food security in the Sudan

Nagat A. M. Elmulthum, Imad E. E. Abdel Karim

Abstract


Recognizing the importance of food security in the Sudan, this paper aimed at estimating and analysing the impact of domestic agricultural policies and changes in world prices evolving from international trade agreements on food security situation in the Sudan. A multi-market model was developed to analyse the impact of different policy scenarios on production, consumption, trade, producer surplus, consumer surplus, government budget, and welfare of the country. Different policy scenarios are simulated that include partial liberalization, self-sufficiency in wheat, self-sufficiency in cereals and increase in world prices scenarios. The impact on food security is measured by food security indicators, namely self-sufficiency in cereals, food security index, per capita consumption of cereals, self-sufficiency in wheat and ratio of wheat imports to total agricultural exports. The results obtained showed that the highest net welfare gain was due to the increase in world prices scenario that led to an increase in producer surplus and government budget. Partial liberalization scenario also resulted in an improvement of producer surplus as taxation burden was relaxed. The impact on consumer surplus was negative for all scenarios due to an increase in domestic prices. The food security impact differed for the different scenarios. Cereals self-sufficiency was improved in all simulated scenarios. With the exception of the partial liberalization scenario, the food security index was expected to decline for all the other scenarios. This result indicated that the calorie consumption of cereals had been negatively affected. This result was further confirmed by the lower levels of per capita cereals consumption as a result of simulating all the scenarios. The ratio of wheat imports to total agricultural exports was expected to be lower as a result of simulated scenarios. The lowest value was expected for the self-sufficiency in wheat scenario which might be attributed to the impact of a large reduction in wheat imports.

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