Time series analysis of rainfall in the Butana area, Sudan

Muna M. Elhag, Sue Walker

Abstract


Monthly and annual rainfall time series for four weather stations in Butana area (ElGadaref, New Halfa, Shambat and Wad Medani) for the period 1940-2004 were analysed. A significant decrease in the annual rainfall was observed at Shambat and Wad Medani from 1968 to 1987, where after the rainfall amount is close to the long-term mean. In ElGadaref, there was a decline in the annual rainfall from 1971 to 1974 but it was not significant, with a recovery from 1975 to 1982 to a value higher than the long-term mean, followed by another downward turn from 1983 to 1994. In New Halfa, there was a significant decrease from 1982 to 1993. The cumulative rainfall departure showed that there was a significant abrupt decrease in annual rainfall series at Shambat and Wad Medani from 1968 to 1987. In ElGadaref station, there was a decline in the annual rainfall from 1971 to 1974.  In New Halfa, there was a significant decrease from 1982 to 1993. The significant decline in the amount of rainfall and the increase in the variability of the annual rainfall of the area was clear in Shambat, New Halfa and Wad Medani. However, the rainfall in ElGadaref was stable around the long-term mean.


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